Game 2 - DAY 3

[protoshepherd]

[ After ousting finishes, the bodies of Hans, Gina, York, and Bruce slowly turn into glass, starting from their feet and it works its way up until the glass covers the bodies. A few seconds after looking like a diamond statue, the glass shatters, leaving nothing but the broken pieces on the floor.

THERE CERTAINLY WERE HUMAN BODIES THERE EARLIER. WELL? NOT ANYMORE…!

Right after that, everyone will receive a text saying:

Congratulations on making it to the third day! Please get some rest now, as the game will continue tomorrow.
Had there been no wolf ousted the past two days, you all will be in grave danger as one more mistake would mean the wolves win. Oh no! :(
The poll has been updated. Please make sure to cast your votes on time.
Please remember that the game will be over once the number of remaining sheep is the same as the number of total wolves. That is three!

The twelve mirrors backstage will look pretty strange, too. Four of those mirrors have been broken as well, with only eight mirrors hung properly. If this isn't symbolic, then I don't know what is. Perhaps it would be best to clean the glass shards up. We wouldn't want anybody to get injured, right? And it would be best to get a lot of rest.

The loudspeakers seem to have been turned off now, and even the noise you could hear in the locked dressing room is gone… mysterious. But it's also helpful since you'd want to sleep peacefully at night, right?

Of course you do. Come morning, the stage will have Samurai Dogs YET AGAIN, coffee, Cheerios and milk. Have at it. ]

Poll #16634

This poll is closed.
Open to: Access List, detailed results viewable to: Just the Poll Creator, participants: 4

Who do you think are wolves?

Nagi Springfield, Gilderoy Lockhart
0 (0.0%)

Asuna Yuuki, Aoi Kurashiki
0 (0.0%)

Inspector Cabanela, Jesse Pinkman
1 (25.0%)

Dick Gumshoe, Bobby Fulbright
2 (50.0%)

Luca Valentino, Lucina
0 (0.0%)

Grace Makutsi, Tony Chu
0 (0.0%)

L'Arachel, Kongwai Tao
0 (0.0%)

Diana, Dandy
1 (25.0%)

---

We'll be going on a break this weekend!

[ 00 EST 24 April: Clue/Activity!!* (change of plans, I'll drop a clue tomorrow so you guys can do something over the weekend.)

00 EST 27 April: Suspicion poll comes to an end and Ousting poll gets put up.

00 EST 28 April: Ousting poll draws to a close. A new day begins, with two teams out of the game. ]

Comments

Discuss things and stuff!

[inspectormacarena]

[So it's coming down to this, is it? Apparently this group is in dire need of some more common sense, so Cabanela will be the one to try and dish it out. He's totally new to games like this, so his number crunching of sorts may be off on this, but they're supposed to be working together and there's very little of that going on right now.

He'll speak up when there's as many people as possible in the room. Hopefully everyone.]

Listen up, gaaang! Things are about to get serious and the way I'm seein' it, we can't afford to make any more mistakes. If we oust another team of our own, we might as well hand this game to the wolves on a silver plaaatter. Even our host agrees with that.

Let's talk statistics, shaaall we? [This would work so much better if he had a white board or something, but alas. Everyone will just have to visualize inside their heads.] We've got several options here. The first is to act on today's clue. Like Shades said, now that we have our confirmed team, there's three more left, one of whom would be big bad wolves. That means we've got a 33% chance of nabbing 'em. Still with me so far?

Another option that we have is to revisit eeearlier oustings and see where we went wrong. Seems highly unlikely that both teams who got voted out were wolves, but we must've gotten it right at least once. If you want my opinion, I'd say that was our Prince of the Southern Isles and his lady partner. Bearing in mind how fast he was to throw accusations around and who were the recipients, that'd just prooove we got the wrong team on the first night. Which would leave two teams of that first clue, one of whom is hiding some nasty fangs. Chances of catching 'em if we act on that? 50%. Assuming you all agree that Prince Hans and Miss Gina were wolves, of cooourse.

[He snaps his fingers, then stretches out his arm.] Do me a favor, yeah babies? Don't blindly start following other people's votes and think for yourselves. You got suspicions? Throw 'em out there and discuss. People turned to glass yesterday and our host's insubstantial claims asiiide, I will be disappointed in anyone who takes that lightly.

[thefaceofjustice]

...I'm going to be open with you, Inspector Cabanela.

That vote up there for your team was made by me.

[inspectormacarena]

[He just laughs. Sure, he was asking for a discussion, but he wasn't expecting anything quite that open. It's not surprising, either.]

Was it made by you or was it made by your team?

[thefaceofjustice]

I conferred with Detective Gumshoe; he agreed with my reasoning, and I put in the vote. Of course, it's hardly a conclusion, as we can change our votes until it closes, but I still feel confident that I made the decision that is in the best interest of justice.

If you know you're a sheep, and you believe in me enough to repeat my own estimates about the wolves, then the odds you're looking at here aren't 33%... for you, they'd be closer to 100% confident that you know who today's wolf is. Why would you then want to take a mere 50% gamble, when you could try to convince the rest into ousting this supposed wolf? I think it's because we'll know if our third ousting was correct or not, and if you sent us after Mr. Dandy, and we find out he was innocent, that you would likely be the next target. You're hoping we'll burn off our last free mistake before we get to that.

I think you're getting desperate. Wolves win if at least one of their teams makes it to the end, right? So all they need is one team to gain enough trust. I'm sure they'd even sacrifice one of their own to seal that trust. But you're attempting this pretty late, Inspector Cabanela. Most of what you're saying here is only copying what I've already said. Like Prince Hans, all the help and investigating you've done so far has only been distraction from finding the wolves. You, an inspector, busied yourself with shooting locks and planting trackers instead of trying to uncover the wolves.

But it's not only you. Your partner stands out. We don't have enough testimony to know if anyone is telling the truth on who they cast their suspicion votes for, but for the first one, Mr. Pinkman echoed two earlier testimonies that claimed to vote for Mr. Lockhart and Mr. Springfield on the basis of trying to keep the votes leveled out. But when it came to ousting... he voted for Ms. Kelly and Dr. Grey, bringing the vote from what was 1-2 at the time to 1-3. If his voting behavior matched up to what he claimed it was for the suspicion poll, he would have voted again for Mr. Lockhart and Mr. Springfield, to bring it to 2-2.

Inconsistency like that is an enormous red flag, Inspector Cabanela!

/tl;drs right back at ya

[inspectormacarena]

[He isn't bothered by any of this argumentation in the least. In fact, he's going to sit down for this, because it sounds like sorting this out might take a while.]

Tsk tsk. So many assumptions, I'm not entirely certain where to start, baby. I'm getting desperate, you saaay? Yes, I am. You know why? Because if there's anything that has now been proven, it's that we have to take this little game seriously. People might die, Detective. Someone already has, and apparently the trial that's currently ongoing for that murder is related to our situation. Whether the poor souls who've been "taken out" of the game are still aliiive or not is debatable as well. So far, our votes have been whims. I can't allow that to go on any longer, baby, which is why I'm stopping you in your tracks riiight now.

Yes, I busied myself with activities not directly related to the game. I am, first and foremost, the Chief of Special Investigations. I do not cave to a kidnapper's wishes without a fight. Howeeever, you cannot claim in good conscience that I did nothing to help uncover the wolves. You have no evidence. Perhaps, dear Detective, I simply did it where you could not seee. Perhaps, if I dug too deep in public, my partner and I would find ourselves on the wolves' hitlist next.

Now, what have you been doing? Strong-arming information left and right. Yet, here you are, still standing. I commeeend you for gathering testimonies, of course. That is a detective's job. I have to wonder, though, if you've played this little game before. You seem awfully familiar with the proceedings and have done very little to put a stop to it. Fuuunny as it is to say, that's also a red flag.

[He runs a quick hand through his hair, then leans forward.] Do I believe that your estimations about the game so far have been correct? Why, yes, because they are based on sound logic. Does that mean I am convinced you are a sheep? Nnnnope. Sorry 'bout that. Does that mean I believe you are a wolf? That's another no, because there is always the chance that it was the third team aaall along and they're having a good laugh watching the two of us right now. Therefooore, in the overall of the game, the chance of acting on today's clue? 33%. 50% for the ones included in the clue, but that only applies to two teams aside from my own, baby.

I don't mind going head to head with you, Shades. I'm confident in my own innocence. Trouble iiis, if it turns out that we're both sheep and we try take this little battle of ours into ousting, the wolves will have won the moment the suspicion poll ends. ...Provided my math is accurate. [He hasn't slept in two days, so... Yeah.]

[thefaceofjustice]

If you're going to try to turn this around on me, you haven't been paying attention. Not only have I collected and examined vote-related testimony, but I've reduced the wolves' cover, with information that was likely to be overlooked. Opening up testimonies on the suspicion votes disadvantaged no one but the wolves; with enough confessions, the wolves can't use it as easily for strategies to push sheep into the ousting. I've also encouraged everyone to abandon the idea of intentionally tying the votes, just to keep the wolves from tilting the polls into their favor, when sheep have the advantage of being a majority. I presented evidence that the number of wolves caught so far was very likely only one, which allows us to understand if this third ousting is a success or failure... which, if we use today's clue, will then tell us if we have two more safe sheep, or if we need to guess again on the same group of teams. And there is nothing strange about knowing the rules, Inspector Cabanela; just as any good detective should know the laws. It's easy enough to see that trying to break doors gets us nowhere, and our focus needs to be on uncovering the wolves as quickly as possible so we can end this.

This is a fight for justice, Inspector Cabanela; until this game is concluded, people will continue to disappear, and everything I've worked for is to keep the wolves from having advantages, using evidence that was likely going to be overlooked. But you focusing on escaping from here does nothing to exempt you from suspicion of being a wolf.

We've never found the perfect evidence here, Inspector Cabanela. No one is 100% suspicious. The text gave us our last "clue"; the only sure conviction we can get is if a wolf confesses, but we can't expect that to happen. However, as I stated earlier, we'll have to make our best guesses. And right now, you and your partner remain at the top of my list of suspects.

Besides, I believe now is the time to vote for a team in the last group of three. Because if we're right, that leaves two more safe sheep instead of one, and the remaining wolf team won't be able to catch up on eliminating them. If this works, the last round will have at least one safe sheep in it.

[inspectormacarena]

No offeeense, Detective, but half the things you're taking credit for are common sense. Tying the votes, for example. We learned the hard way on the very first night that nothing good would come from it, baby.

You know what the greatest eeenemy of justice is? Hasty justification and self righteousness. I was like you, once. Trust me, I learned my lesson the hard way and it's stuck by me ever since. You want to know why I focused on escaping, especially on the first day? I assuuuure you, it was no strategy to relieve suspicion or anything like that. It was selfishness. [He smiles a very bitter grimace.] I had somewhere important to be and I missed it. If the rumors are true and it's 2026, I missed it by quite a few years. That's aaall there is to it.

"If we're right", you say. If. I can tell you right now that your current suspicions are wrooong, baby, and what happens if you sucker everyone else into following your lead like- well, like sheep? Wolves win. Now, I'm not sayin' that's your plan, I'm just pointing it out for you and everyone else. This is the sort of thing that we need to be waaary of, but you're brushing it off as if it's nothing, man.

[yeahscience]

...seriously, yo? And someone made you a cop? What do you do when you investigate -- pick a guy at random and keep 'em in lock-up while other people actually look at evidence and shit?

And Cabanela hasn't been running distraction plays, neither, by the by. He's been trying to get us out of here, unlike some people.

[thefaceofjustice]

[Well yes, that's a pretty close description of Ace Attorney-- BUT ANYWAY...]

Your behavior is even more suspect than your partner's, Mr. Pinkman.

[yeahscience]

Why? Because I'm questioning your ass instead of lying down and taking it? This is just straight-up bullying, asshole. I don't say anything and everyone thinks, oh, yeah, guess it's true. I stand up for myself and you say that makes me even more suspicious? Gee, lucky for you, you got yourself a win-win.

If you wanna call me a wolf, don't go slinging mud like a politician. Prove it. But you can't, can you?

[curedham]

And you would put your vote forth so hastily when the same act was what incriminated Hans yesterday?

[thefaceofjustice]

I wouldn't call this a hasty conclusion, as we can all freely change or even withdraw our votes before the poll closes. But I now feel that there's enough data out there for me to confidently suspect Inspector Cabanela and Mr. Pinkman.

[yeahscience]

Bullshit there is. This is about as scientific as Sesame Street.

[yeahscience]

[Jesse's still not exactly raring to go, but he's loyal, if nothing else: his partner gets up to speak and he tries to listen, as glum and uncomfortable as he still looks in the wake of the glass transformation.

It takes him a little bit of extra effort to follow along with the math, because numbers aren't his strong suit. Patterns, on the other hand...]

Okay, so... if we figure that the prince dude and Linetti were the real wolves, I mean, does anyone else have anything in common with them? Besides all that money-and-the-devil biz?

addition to cabanela's perfect math class for everyone

[catmagnet]

[ Did someone say visualization? ]

I took the liberty of drawing out our most likely situation right now. X's denote those taken out of this...state of affairs. [ He refuses to use the word game for this. ] The one O refers to the confirmed sheep.

[ Since he wants to spare their feelings, especially after last night, he won't say they're the obvious target tonight. ]

Change the order of the first two X's around in your mind if you must--as far as the numbers are concerned, this should be the worst case scenario. And just to be clear...whether or not we choose correctly today, we have two chances left.

[inspectormacarena]

[Oooh, that is helpful! He peers at the drawing and nods along with the explanation, but the last bit has him frown.]

Two chances left? Now, correct me if I'm wrooong here, baby. Our host said it's game over, and I quote... [Hang on, he's checking his phone for this.] "Once the number of remaining sheep is the same as the number of total wolves". Total wolf teams would be three, so we lose if the sheep get cut down to that same number.

Now, here's what I'm thinkin'. There's eight teams left, presuuumably six of them sheep. If we choose wrong tonight? We lose two of those teams, cutting us down to four, supposedly up against two wolf teams. What happens next? Maaaybe we get lucky and catch one of those two, but it'll be too late. The big bad hounds who were left behind use their own turn to take away our fourth team and we lose.

Which meeeeans... If our assumptions so far were correct, we have one chance left and it's this one tonight. [He's silent for a moment, then raises both hands to his face and his fingertips rub just below his eyes.] ... Again, correct me if I'm wrooong, baby. I'd jump at more chances to screw up.

[catmagnet]

[ Kongwai lets out a small "hmm" when he takes another look at his drawing. After a moment, he looks up with an expression grimmer than it was before. ]

You're right, I put too much emphasis on the remaining number of sheep just now. The rules we received at the beginning stated we lose if the wolves outnumber the sheep, so I've been defaulting to that during my thought process.

[ What a foolish thing to overlook... The lack of sleep lately has been getting to him more than he thought it would. Not that he can easily remedy that in this situation, mind you. ]

Unless there's some sort of mechanic they're still hiding from us, we'll unavoidably lose one sheep a day... If we do keep in mind that we need at least four sheep to avoid our loss, then yes, we'll need to choose correctly from now on.

[inspectormacarena]

[Uuugh. He just kinda slumps in his chair.]

... Hate it when I'm right.

[catmagnet]

On the bright side, we have a lot more information than we did at the first vote.

[notaccurate]

[Luca really wishes that Lucina could be the one to explain all of what he has come up with, he really hates talking to large groups at once, but he's not sure he can properly explain his whole thought process to her. It's far better to 'bite the bullet' and just deal with getting hassled for what he is about to say, since he can at least answer questions if someone questions him.]

The wolf team from the first clue is Mr. Lockhart and Mr. Springfield.

[He had a huge bit of reasoning, based on magical experiments from today, but he doesn't want to reveal that yet. He will save that for later.]

When their team went up to vote on the first night, Hans was quick to jump in and vote for the team that was eventually eliminated. I think we can all agree that, based on how he acted, both teams were not wolf teams.

However, I think his actions on the first day tell us much more than that. Each clue has three teams in it, but only two can go to the final vote. There is always a chance that, even if we are voting strictly by clues, a wolf team would not make it to the final vote. Both sheep teams from the clue might end up in the vote.

If both teams on that first day were sheep teams, then why would Hans be so quick to vote? Why would he be so vocal about it? It would not matter at all, either way a sheep team would be eliminated, and the wolf team would be protected. All he would need to do is silently slip his vote on to one of the two teams, and a sheep team could be eliminated without much fuss.

But Hans didn't wait and slide by. He very quickly declared his intentions. I think it is because the other team up to vote- Mr. Springfield and Mr. Lockhart- is a wolf team, and Hans was trying to protect them. Being the first vote, nobody could have known how quickly people would vote one way or the other, so he could have thought that he had to act quickly before everyone jumped onto Mr. Springfield and Mr. Lockhart. So it has to be them.

[There is a short, awkward pause, before he adds a bit more.]

Ah...that is, perhaps, not entirely accurate. Let me rephrase: if Hans' team was a wolf team, then Mr. Springfield and Mr. Lockhart must be wolves.

[He doesn't like leaving it open like that, since he is reasonably sure that Hans was a wolf, but. Avoiding arguments and all.]

[trenchdoting]

That's who I thought it was back then too, pal! I knew both of the other teams had to be innocent!! [But then he looks a little sad, too, wondering what exactly happening to Kelly and her teammate.]

[notaccurate]

Mmm, but the question for today is, should we go back to that group? Or focus on the three new teams who were indirectly in a clue?

[trenchdoting]

Well, me... I'm standing by my partner's reasoning, pal! We're focusing on that second set. We can go after those guys from the first day tomorrow! If we're right, that should put an end to it!

[notaccurate]

Some of us are not so sure, though.

[Luca himself has only really talked with Cabanela and Dandy.]

It would be a risk, especially with the answer being less-clear for everyone.

[inspectormacarena]

[Bless you, Luca, for having common sense and diverting from the sheep mentality. Cabanela will shoot you a mild smile next time you glance his way.]